The GDP data is scheduled to be released by Statistics Canada on Thursday, February 29, at 13:30 GMT. Here are some predictions from five big banks’ analysts and experts regarding the growth data that will be released as the release date approaches.

The Canadian economy is predicted to have grown by 0.8% from October to December 2023, following an annualized 1.1% loss in Q3 2023.

TDS

After contracting by 1.1% in Q3, we expect real GDP growth of 0.8% in Canada, preventing a severe landing. This is because expenditure-based growth is supported by residential investment and household consumption.

RBC Financial Services

We anticipate that Q4 GDP growth will continue to be positive, with an annualized gain of just 0.5%. This will stop the economy from contracting for two quarters in a row, which is commonly used to characterize a recession as “technical.” However, in light of the nation’s explosive population increase, this is the sixth consecutive quarter in which the per-capita GDP has decreased, and the jobless rate has continued to rise. Monthly GDP growth is anticipated to be 0.1% in December, improving on the 0.2% gain in November but falling short of the very subject to adjustment 0.3% preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada one month prior.

NBF

According to NBF Monthly reports released thus far, a substantial rise in household consumption during the quarter was only somewhat offset by a decline in corporate investment in the areas of buildings and machinery/equipment. According to the decrease in house starts over the last three months of the year, residential investment may have shrunk for the sixth time in the previous seven quarters. Growth should have been hindered by inventory depletion, but net exports might have improved (real exports increased and real imports decreased). After accounting for everything, the GDP may have risen by 0.7% annually during the quarter.

CIB

The BoC had predicted a flat quarter, but our forecast of 0.8% annualized growth is far higher. This is because the supply side of the economy is expected to rise, not the inflation danger. Although there have been conflicting early signs of activity in January, the advance estimate of GDP for the month will shed more light on activity in a month where favorable weather could have increased output.

Citi

We anticipate a 1.3% quarter-over-quarter increase in GDP by spending in Q4—a higher growth rate than the BoC’s prediction in January. However, this year’s quarterly GDP statistics have been particularly erratic (and prone to significant revisions). However, as the BoC has been anticipating stagnant activity in Q4, even a milder-than-anticipated increase in output would probably not dramatically raise the likelihood of much earlier rate cuts. A little more robust growth in Q4 and H1 should keep BoC policymakers on the slightly more cautious side of things.

Conclusion

Understanding Canada’s GDP forecasts is imperative in navigating the complex world of economic realities. The insights derived from these predictions serve as a critical component in decision-making across all industries. By being informed and engaged with these forecasts, professionals and business leaders can steer their strategies with clarity and precision. Universities and educational institutions should ensure their curricula adequately equip students with the analytical skills required to interpret and leverage these forecasts. In the quest for economic resilience and prosperity, integrating GDP forecast analysis is not merely beneficial—it is essential.