With the S&P 500 down roughly 40 basis points and the Nasdaq 100 closing flat, stocks ended the day on a negative note. Materially, a lot stayed the same.

Since it sends a more explicit message, the Nasdaq has taken center stage in my attention in recent days.

One that delineates levels of support and resistance while staying below the 18,040 level that I identified the day before, contributing to the definition of the 2b top.

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Should this be the pattern, there may be a drop and a closing of the gap at 17,850.

I could easily make the case that rates could drop even more, but that would need a break in the 4.35% barrier on the 5, 7, and 10-year Treasuries.

The point is that the break higher in rates is not happening at this time. Although not harmful, today’s 2-year and 5-year auctions could have been better, too.

However, they needed to be better to cause a significant market reaction. This implies that the focus of today will shift to the 7-year Treasury and Thursday’s PCE report.

It is also possible to argue that the US dollar, which has been declining since the start of February, is about to break out compared to the Mexican peso.

There is a chance for the peso to surge above its present levels. Only a little would be needed to raise the peso.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) is still having trouble breaking above and below the $800 mark, which is now a significant level of resistance.

This is because there is a significant amount of gamma at the $800 mark, and unless that level clears or rises, $800 is probably going to continue to be a substantial level of resistance.

Therefore, if this stock runs out of steam now, there isn’t much left in the tank for the market as a whole, considering how much of the gains Nvidia has contributed to the market’s returns this year. Thus, we’ll see what occurs today.

I hope you have a wonderful one.

Conclusion

The Nasdaq 100 is a dynamic entity, susceptible to a myriad of influences, each holding the potential to shape its trajectory. By being acutely attuned to pivotal junctures such as PCE data releases and Treasury Note Auctions, and by diligently tracking indicators and metrics like the Nasdaq 100 Index, volatility levels, and sector performance, investors can arm themselves with the knowledge required to act responsively and with foresight.

It’s integral to remember that market-watching is an iterative process, and each piece of information, each turn of events, contributes to an evolving narrative. By remaining consistently informed, flexible, and engaged, you can more adeptly navigate the Nasdaq 100 and the broader financial landscape, turning unpredictability into opportunity. Happy trading, and stay vigilant.